|
ITB World Travel Trends Report
Bruised Asian Travel Industry
Recovering Slowly
ITB World Travel Trends Report says Asian travel
demand will perk up in 2010, but spending is likely
to lag
Berlin,
21 December 2009.
–
Asian travel demand will close 5% down for 2009 in
part due to sharp declines in travellers from South
Korea. Longhaul destinations such as Europe are
being hit hardest as Japanese, Chinese, Indians and
Thais also choose to stay home or travel within Asia
Travel demand for 2010 is likely to pick up, but
spending is likely to lag at around 2005-2006
levels. Prospects for 2010 will be greatly
determined by any return of consumer confidence in
Japan and China.
These are just some of the key trends highlighted in
the latest ITB
World Travel Trends Report, commissioned
by Messe Berlin, the organisers of ITB Berlin, and
compiled by IPK International.
The ITB World
Travel Trends Report findings show that
Asian travel demand averaged a more than a 10%
decline January-June. However, some market recovery
has been recorded since July 2009, indicating that
the Asian travel industry is over the worst. IPK
forecasts of a total-year decline of 5%.
While intra-Asian trip volume fell by only 5% from
January through August 2009, travel to Europe (14%
of total trips) was down 10%. Asian travel to the
Americas (9% of all Asian trips) slumped by a more
hurtful 15%.
The report notes that Chinese travellers may be more
recession-proof than the Japanese, but they don’t
spend as much. In Europe, for example, the total
spend by Chinese tourists on transport,
accommodation, food and beverages and incidentals
(i.e. excluding shopping) was
€240
per night, as against €320
for Japanese, €185
for Koreans and €180
for Taiwanese.
In 2009, destinations dependent on Chinese
travellers were also disappointed for different
reasons. The Chinese government issued an edict
earlier in the year stating that no Chinese
government employee could travel abroad in 2009.
The biggest decline so far in 2009, in terms of
outbound travel, has come from South Korea, down
more than 10% over the same period in 2008 – a
decline due in large part to exchange rates. In the
six months from September 2008, the won went through
a period of great volatility, involving massive
depreciations. The report notes that South Korea was
already weak as an outbound travel market in 2008
following several years of consistently strong
growth.
Even within Asia, the
once high-flying low cost airline sector suffered in
2009. Despite rock-bottom airfares, the sector has
experienced capacity cuts, which resulted in lower
seat availability and, inevitably, rising airfares.
According to Dr Martin Buck, Vice President
Competence Center Travel & Logistics, at Messe
Berlin, the big question now is, how sustainable are
the first signs of recovery in Asia? “Analysts are
divided,” he said. “Some see a 2nd dip
into recession. Others think government stimulus
packages have got us through the worst of it. The
price of oil and the threat of H1N1 are unknown
factors.”
He added: “The report predicts a modest increase in
outbound trip volume for Asia, but expenditure and
yield levels will still be at pre-2008 levels.
Within Asia we can still expect to see shorter,
cheaper trips, closer to home and at off-peak
times.”
The report also predicts that, globally, business
travel will stay flat, with many companies saying
they had introduced stricter travel policies. One
consequence is likely to be a rise in the price of
economy tickets as airlines losing money at the
front end of the plane raise economy class tickets
to compensate.
The findings in the
ITB World Travel
Trends Report were based on the
assessments of 60 tourism experts from 30 countries,
on a special IPK International trend analysis
undertaken in leading source markets, and on core
data supplied by the World Travel Monitor®,
recognised as the largest ongoing survey of global
travel trends in some 60 source countries.
The report concludes: “There are
currently too many uncertainties to be able to
predict with any real confidence the likely trends
in terms of travel and tourism demand from the
world's leading source regions. For the time being,
pending developments over the next few months, the
best 'guesstimates' suggest that neither Europe nor
North America will do better than achieve a flat
year in terms of growth, unless the economic
recovery is much stronger in the USA than currently
expected. But Asia Pacific should see at least a
modest increase in outbound trip volume – mainly for
intra-regional destinations – a trend also forecast
for South America and the Middle East.” |
