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ITB Berlin Convention
2010
10 to 12 March 2010
ITB World Travel Trends Report
European Travel Industry Likely to Stay Flat in 2010
ITB World Travel Trends Report says small gains from
Asia won’t be enough to offset low demand from
economically uncertain American and European
travellers
Berlin,
29 December 2009
– Decline in demand for European destinations in
2009 will ease, with some instances of growth in
2010. But any upturns in demand from emerging
markets in Asia won’t be enough to offset continued
flat or negative demand from American and European
markets.
These are just some of the key issues highlighted in
the latest ITB World Travel Trends Report,
commissioned by Messe Berlin, the organisers of ITB
Berlin, and compiled by IPK International.
The report quotes IMF predictions that developed
economies are shaping up for an average 3% decline
in GDP for 2009, compared to 2% growth in emerging
economies, led by top performers China and India
However, salvation from Asia is far from certain,
says the report. Factors such as oil price
volatility, H1N1 fears, the Chinese government
directive that government employees shouldn’t travel
abroad, and a general trend to domestic, cheaper
short haul travel in Asia - and worldwide - all
indicate that European destinations are likely to
have a lean 2010.
The ITB World Travel Trends Report notes that the
impact of the global recession on travel and tourism
demand has been severe. In the first eight months of
2009, international tourist arrivals fell by 7%,
according to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO),
which is now forecasting a decline of 4% to 6% for
full year 2009.
The long-term trend in European travel has been for
a steady increase in the use of air travel. Car
travel has been weak for several years. However,
Europeans, with a keen eye on costs, economised in
the first eight months 2009 by hitting the road to
travel. There was a 2% increase in car travel, while
air travel declined 8%.
The report also noted that rail travel had been
enjoying a recovery in tourism demand, from lower
levels, associated with the introduction of new
high-speed services. However, demand for rail travel
in Europe declined 3% in the first eight months of
2009.
Cruising had been a booming market. Ferry travel had
been doing well. However, trips by ship declined by
10% in the first eight months of 2009. Coach travel,
among European travellers also continued to slide,
suffering a drop of 20% for the first eight months
of 2009. However, IPK cautions that such trends in
the first two-thirds of 2009 may only be indicative.
Full-year results may reveal new or modified trends.
Sun and beach holidays, which form by far the most
important category of outbound holidays among
Europeans, have performed relatively well in both
2008 and 2009, following three years of only modest
growth. However, holidaymaker’s preferences for
traditional destinations such as Spain, France and
Greece have changed. Market shares were lost to
newer holiday destinations in North Africa, the
Eastern Mediterranean and further a field.
Making forecasts is difficult. Dr Martin Buck,
Director of the Competence Center, Travel &
Logistics at Messe Berlin said that there were
currently too many uncertainties to make accurate
forecasts for 2010. “Depending on developments over
the next few months, the best 'guesstimates' suggest
that neither Europe nor North America will do better
than achieve a flat 2010 in terms of growth, unless
the economic recovery is much stronger in the USA
than currently expected.”
However, on a cautiously optimistic note he added:
“Asia Pacific should see at least a modest increase
in outbound trip volume, mainly for intra-regional
destinations, a trend also forecast for South
America and the Middle East.”
About ITB Berlin and the ITB Berlin Convention
ITB Berlin 2010 will take place from Wednesday, 10
to Sunday, 14 March. ITB Berlin will be open to
trade visitors only from Wednesday to Friday.
Parallel with the trade fair, the ITB Berlin
Convention will be held from Wednesday to Friday, 10
to 12 March 2010.
The programme for 2010 will be available online
soon. ITB Berlin is the world’s leading travel trade
show. In 2009 a total of 11,098 companies from 187
countries exhibited their products and services to
178,971 visitors, who included 110,857 trade
visitors. |
